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Grain and Milk Markets Present Challenges for Farmers in 2019

By Paul Gross
 
 
Milk and grain marketing series offers strategies to optimize farm profitability.
 
Commodity price outlook for 2019 continues to be gloomy for corn, soybeans and wheat as harvest wraps up across Michigan. Dairy stocks are continuing to build heading into the end of this year. The 2018 season was bad and it appears 2019 will be more of the same. Land rental rates, trade and tariffs, and input costs rising all contribute to the challenges facing farmers.
 
Historically, farm input costs adjust to the changes in commodity prices, but this tends to occur over a longer period of time. Farms need to make adjustments in their cost of production budgets as well as the marketing plans to survive until commodity prices improve, allowing the farm to generate positive returns.
 
To assist farmers making marketing decisions, a Milk and Grain Marketing Series will be held starting Dec. 18, 2018, and meet quarterly in 2019 on March 19, June 18 and Sept. 17. Fred Hinkley, Michigan State University Extension educator emeritus and marketing specialist, will provide insight and outlook on the milk and grain markets and suggest strategies to minimize financial risk.
 
Agriculture markets are more volatile than ever. For most farms, profits are largely determined by how well you market your production. Now more than ever your farm’s future success depends on your ability to understand the markets and use the basic marketing tools.
 
The meetings will be at the Isabella County Building Room 320, 200 N. Main Street, Mt. Pleasant, MI 48858, from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. The cost for attending these meetings will be $400 per farm. This will cover all four meetings and will not limit the number from each farm/agribusiness that may attend.
 
Pre-registration is encouraged by Dec. 15. You can register for the program online at Milk and Grain Marketing Series 2018-2019.
 

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U.S.-China Trade “Truce” + U.S. Fed Cuts Rates Again

Video: U.S.-China Trade “Truce” + U.S. Fed Cuts Rates Again


The market was hoping for a US-China trade deal, but we got a trade “truce” for now from the keenly awaited Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit.
China commits to minimum purchase commitments of 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans during the “current season” and a minimum of 25 MMT annually through 2028.
U.S. Treasury Sec Bessent said other Asian countries have agreed to buy additional 19 MMT of US soybean.
Soybean futures trading above $11 now- they normally tend to rally to $12.
As expected, US Fed cuts interest rates by -0.25% again in October to 3.75%–4.00%. No further cuts promised for this year but trade looking out to the Dec FOMC.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.25% but raised concern over trade war damage.
Soy meal futures, remarkably, have had 14 consecutive higher close sessions. A bull market in soybeans is a bull market in soy meal!
Cattle futures lower as funds unwind out of cattle for now due to Trump headlines and objective to lower beef prices.
All major stock indices climb to new record highs. It was Mag 7 reporting week, which had mixed results. But we now have the first $5 trillion company in Nvidia!