Investors watched U.S.-China trade talks, Black Sea developments and USDA reports as grain and livestock markets posted mixed results.
Grain markets posted mixed results during the week of September 25, 2026, as traders monitored the U.S.-China trade summit, ongoing geopolitical tensions, U.S. harvest progress, weather disruptions and expectations for the upcoming USDA quarterly grain stocks report.
This according to the September 25 edition of the Farms.com Risk Management Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, titled "Trump-Xi Summit Headlines Disappointing BUT..." hosted by Abhinesh Gopal, head of commodity research. The podcast focused heavily on the U.S.-China trade summit and its potential implications for agricultural commodity markets.
Corn ended slightly higher during the trading week, while soy meal and oats reached new contract highs. Soybeans also advanced, while soybean oil declined.
Canola finished higher, and all three major wheat contracts closed lower. Livestock markets were mixed, with cattle futures gaining and lean hogs recovering from the previous week's contract lows before facing renewed demand concerns.
Gopal noted during the podcast that the existing trade truce between the United States and China was extended by two months during the U.S.-China trade summit, moving the revised expiration date from November 10, 2026, to January 10, 2027.
However, traders were still waiting for additional details regarding China's commitments to purchase U.S. agricultural products. (Some updates were announced on Monday, September 28th, read the article: U.S. and China Trade Deals Could Boost Farm Exports and Ease Trade Tensions.)
China's non-soybean purchases remained an important issue. From January through July, China had purchased approximately $3.9 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products excluding soybeans, while its initial commitment called for $17 billion in non-soybean purchases.
U.S. soybean purchases were estimated at about 65% of an initial 25-million-metric-ton commitment when sales to unknown destinations were included. Market participants were also watching for potential announcements involving additional U.S. corn and wheat purchases. (Some updates were announced on Monday, September 28th.)
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Black Sea region added another layer of uncertainty. Crude oil prices eased last week after Iran indicated a willingness to resume peace discussions with the U.S., although previous attempts from either side at executing on their peace deals had broken down.
Meanwhile, negotiations involving Russia and Ukraine have not produced a concrete ceasefire agreement, keeping concerns about Black Sea commodity supplies in focus.
Attention is now shifting toward the September USDA quarterly grain stocks report. Traders are watching corn and soybean inventory estimates, while wet conditions across parts of the western Corn Belt continue to disrupt harvest activity.
As of the Monday, September 21, USDA crop progress report, 13% of U.S. corn and 12% of soybeans had been harvested, both slightly ahead of average.
The podcast also highlighted USDA hog data and CFTC positioning. U.S. hog inventories were reported at 74.3 million head on September 1, down 2% from a year earlier, while funds increased buying in soybeans and soybean meal but sold corn and wheat.
Watch the Trump-Xi Summit Headlines Disappointing BUT... podcast below.
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