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Growth Stage 30, PGR Timing and More

The field season is well underway with much of the nitrogen on winter wheat, spring cereals being seeded and herbicide, fungicide and plant growth regulator (PGR) applications planned for the coming weeks. And yes, it is only April 16th!  The early spring brought a lot of excitement to the wheat crop with the recent rains being welcomed to help slow the pace.
 
Many are commenting this is one of the earliest springs they can remember, so the question is, are we early and by how much? When looking at Growing Degree Day (GDD) accumulations (a weather-based indicator for tracking and predicting cereal growth and development) since March 1st, accumulations are well above the 9-year average in many areas (Table 1). This would be why many early-planted fields are at or approaching Growth Stage (GS) 30 and why paying attention to growth stage rather than the calendar date is important.
 
Identifying GS 30 and Management Considerations  
 
GS 30 is important in winter wheat because this is when plants shift from vegetative to reproductive growth.  All meaningful tillering has been completed and the main stem and tillers start to synchronize. This stage is critical for nitrogen applications in order to influence the number and size of seeds on the head. This stage is also the beginning of the optimum window for PGR applications. Many early-planted fields are at or approaching this growth stage. Later-planted fields in Ontario are still at the tillering stage.
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.