By Dr. Kenny Burdine
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) released their May 1 hay stock estimates as part of the May Crop Production report on Tuesday May 12th. USDA-NASS estimates hay stocks on May 1 and December 1 each year. Since most hay is fed during the winter months, the December estimate can be thought of as hay supply going into the winter and the May estimate can be thought of as hay supply at the start of the grazing season. This is an oversimplification, but it does help put hay stock levels in perspective.
At the national level, hay stocks were estimated to be down by a little more than 3% from May 1 of 2025. While this is a year-over-year decrease, it is also the second highest May 1 stock number since 2017 and well above the 5-year and 10-year averages. Spring hay stocks are really a function of the previous year’s production and how much was fed that winter. While hay stock data is very aggregated, this report does suggest that hay supply was in a relatively good place at the national level this spring.
While national hay production and stock levels provide a high-level overview of the supply picture, producers are much more concerned about supplies in their local areas. To provide some more localized perspective, the table below shows estimates for some selected states of interest. Texas stands out with a decrease in hay stocks of 1,000 tons from last year, but sizeable increases can be seen in states like Kansas and Oklahoma.
While hay stock estimates largely provide high-level context for hay supply, I think the timing of the spring report is a good reminder that it is never too early to think about hay inventory at the farm level. Production and feeding patterns can be very different across the US and are compounded by the fact that hay is a very expensive commodity to transport. For this reason, wide geographic differences in hay supply and demand conditions are common.
Source : osu.edu