By Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey
Average per acre returns to soybean production have exceeded those for corn production in 10 out of the 13 crop years from 2013 to 2025. The opposite was true over the prior 13 crops years from 2000 to 2012. Acreage trends in Illinois indicate farmers are responding to the shift in relative profitability by planting a smaller percentage of their acres to corn.
Corn versus Soybean Returns in Illinois
Figure 1 shows average corn minus soybean returns for central Illinois grain farms with high-productivity farmland enrolled in Illinois FBFM from 2000 to 2025, with projections for 2026 based on the latest Illinois crop budgets (see farmdoc daily from May 19, 2026).
From 2000 to 2012, average per acre returns to corn production exceeded returns to soybeans in 10 years with an average advantage for corn of $59 per acre. The latter half of this period includes the years of high returns and farm incomes during the biofuel boom resulting from the Renewable Fuel Standard.
The large increases in use of corn for ethanol production largely came to an end by 2013. Since 2013, average returns to soybeans have exceeded those for corn. Soybean returns exceeded corn returns in 10 out of the 13 years from 2013 to 2025, with an average advantage for soybeans of $53 per acre. The 2013 to 2025 period has been characterized by lower returns due to low commodity price levels relative to production costs, which have increased consistently through time. Exceptions include the 2020 to 2022 crop years when a significant amount of ad hoc assistance was provided in response to the pandemic (2020), and corn and soybean prices saw significant increases (2021 and 2022) due in part to supply chain issues associated with the pandemic and the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. The largest return advantage for soybeans in the last 25 years occurred in 2023 when average soybean returns exceeded corn returns by $237 per acre. Notably, average farmer returns to both corn and soybeans were negative in 2023 but the average loss for soybeans was less than that for corn acres.
Acreage Allocation Trends
Figure 2 shows the percentage of total tillable acres planted to corn by grain farms enrolled in FBFM in the northern (upper panel), central (middle panel), and southern (lower panel) regions of Illinois from 2003 to 2024. The percentage of acres planted to corn has trended down slightly in all three regions over the past 12-15 years, a period which corresponds with the greater relative returns to soybean acres. This indicates a response from farmers in adjusting their crop rotation decisions to the shift in relative profitability.
Historically, a higher percentage of acres have been planted to corn in northern Illinois. This is due to continuous corn rotations being more common in the northern region of the state, which can be linked to greater feed demand from beef and dairy operations in that region of Illinois among other factors. Corn and soybeans are by far the primary crops planted over the past 25 years in both northern and central Illinois, with both typically accounting for 95% or more of total planted acreage. Thus, reductions (increases) in corn acreage are typically offset by corresponding increases (reductions) in soybean acres. The proportion of corn acres in northern Illinois has dropped back under 60% in recent crop years after exceeding that level from 2007 to 2018 with a peak of just over 69% in 2011. The share of corn acres in central Illinois has dropped down to around 50%, trending down from a peak of nearly 60% in the 2007 crop year.
Source : illinois.edu