By John Newton
Key Takeaways
- Crop revenue projections are mixed but mostly improved. September's WASDE raised per-acre revenue estimates for corn and soybeans, along with rice, barley and oats. But peanuts, cotton, wheat and sorghum revenue projections fell from USDA’s May estimates.
- Post-Hormuz input cost shocks for diesel and fertilizer are eating into any revenue gains. Since the Strait of Hormuz closure in early March, fertilizer and diesel costs have surged nationally. Diesel prices alone are up 45% since the spring and, absent a resolution of geopolitical risks, including recent disruptions in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, input costs are expected to keep climbing as farmers enter into harvest.
- Breakeven remains out of reach for all major row crops. Crops with falling revenue projections now face even deeper losses due to higher diesel and fertilizer expenses. Crops with rising revenue projections, like corn and soybeans, may offset some added costs, but across the board, the record-high –input cost environment means no major row crop is projected to clear breakeven for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Crop Revenue Expectations Are Mixed
USDA’s recent September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) provided the first field-level observations and projections for planted acres, crop yields and the corresponding season average prices for major row crops for the 2026/27 marketing year. The national average revenue per harvested acre for corn is now projected at $857, up more than $50 from the May WASDE projections.
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