All signs point to a more abundant supply of U.S. pork in 2026, as the USDA’s December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs revealed a 1% greater inventory of all hogs and pigs and 1% more market hogs from the December 2024 report. Only one of the four weight classes was down, just a percentage point, from a year ago. USDA ERS Agricultural Economists Mildred Haley and Adriana Valcu-Lisman say the report indicates U.S. pork supplies will likely be larger through the spring.
“USDA forecasts first-quarter commercial pork production at about 7 billion pounds, fractionally higher than first-quarter production in 2025,” the economists note. “First-quarter live-equivalent prices of national producer-sold hogs are forecast at $64 per cwt, about 1% higher than a year ago, signaling increased pork demand.”
According to the USDA Economic Research Service Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for January 2026, Q2 2026 commercial pork production is expected to reach 6.9 billion pounds, a 2.4% increase from a year ago, while hog prices are forecast at $70 per cwt, a marginal rise from the same period last year.
If producers follow through on their December-February intentions to farrow 2% more sows, and achieve a moderate litter rate increase, Haley and Valcu-Lisman anticipate commercial pork production in Q3 to also reach 6.9 billion pounds. However, live-equivalent prices of producer-sold hogs are expected to average $72 per cwt, a 6.6% drop from prices a year earlier.
As for March–May intentions, if producers carry out their plans, 2.91 million head will farrow. With litter rates expected to be moderately larger than the year prior, Q4 commercial pork production should rise to 7.5 billion pounds, a 2.5% jump from the fourth quarter of 2025. Live-equivalent producer-sold hog prices during the last quarter are forecast at an average $61 per cwt, 6% below prices in Q4 2025.
Overall, total commercial pork production this year is expected to tally up to 28.2 billion pounds, a 2.3% increase from 2025; while prices are forecast at an average $67 per cwt, 3% lower than last year.
As for 2025 exports, Mexico continues to be the primary buyer of U.S. pork, accounting for almost 46% of October’s total shipments. Haley and Valcu-Lisman note the volume sent south was about 3.5 times more than shipments to Japan, the next highest buyer that month.
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