NOAA’s spring outlook is offering little comfort for the U.S. winter wheat crop on the Plains, with forecasters calling for a hotter- and drier-than-normal pattern across a broad stretch of the region during the critical April-through-June period.
Many Hard Red Winter wheat areas already under mounting stress after a warm, dry winter left soil moisture depleted and drought expanding.
Released last week, the NOAA outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the Plains, while below-average precipitation is expected in parts of the central High Plains and much of the Rockies. NOAA said drought is likely to worsen or develop in many areas of the West and south-central Plains as the U.S. shifts from La Nina toward ENSO-neutral conditions.
Meanwhile, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor described intense, unseasonable heat and almost nonexistent precipitation across large parts of the High Plains for the week ended March 24, prompting widespread expansion of drought categories in Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota and Kansas.
Kansas, the top U.S. winter wheat-producing state, has seen conditions slide noticeably in March. Nearly one-third of the state was in some form of drought as of Tuesday, up from 23% a week earlier. The Kansas crop’s good-to-excellent rating also fell to 46% as of Sunday, down from 61% in early February. In Oklahoma, more than 94% of the state is now affected by drought, a dramatic increase from a year ago. Nationwide, an estimated 57% of U.S. winter wheat areas were in some form of drought as of Tuesday, well above 38% last year.
Recent weather has done little to ease those worries. Although the latest Plains heat wave has temporarily broken, temperatures earlier this week surged to extraordinary March highs, including 95 degrees F in Wichita, KS. NOAA said the Plains’ dry and often windy weather has sharply reduced topsoil moisture for rangeland, pastures and winter wheat, leaving the crop vulnerable as spring development accelerates.
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