The MarketsFarm team gave their July weather and market update last week.
Bruce Burnett, the Director of Weather and Markets Information, focused on the drought, and it's impact on the wheat and durum market during the virtual event.
"Certainly, I think we're going to classify 2021 as one of the worst drought years that we've had on the prairies. On par with the 30s, 61, as well as the early parts of 2000 in terms of drought."
He notes during the time when the crop sets most of the yield (through the middle of June to the middle of July) most areas of the prairies have had deficits of more than two inches of rainfall and that stretches from the Peace River region in Alberta all the way down into Manitoba.
He says crops are suffering from moisture stress and yields are dropping.
"Production, I'm currently expecting the lowest since 2007 on spring wheat. The first official glimpse we get from Statistics Canada will be at the end of August."
The US is looking at a significant shortfall in wheat production as the drought continues to impact key growing areas there, with Burnett anticipating a further drop in crop yields for wheat from the previous USDA report, which had put wheat yields at their lowest level since 2002.
For durum, he says, the US markets are already starting to move.
"Prices in the past week have been up between $2 and $4 a bushel, depending on where you are, and who's posting the bids. In terms of just plain elevator bids, U-S $10.40 to $11 per bushel range is available now in parts of North Dakota and Montana. This would translate in Canadian dollars to, you know, over $13 to $14 a bushel, let's say."
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