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May WASDE Report – Record Corn Crop, Increased Soybean Production Suggest Bearish Marketing Year Ahead

By Bernt Nelson

The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates gives the first look at USDA’s supply and demand expectations for the newest marketing year since the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

Corn

This was a bearish report for corn. USDA estimates corn planted for the 2023/24 marketing year will be 92 million acres, up 4% from 2022/23, when 88.6 million acres of corn were planted. USDA forecasts farmers will harvest 84.1 million acres of corn in 2023 with a trendline yield of ­­­­181.5 bushels per acre. This puts corn production projections in 2023 at 15.26 billion bushels, up 1.5 billion bushels, or 11%, from 2022’s 13.7 billion bushels. This would be 7% above the five-year average of 14.2 billion bushels and would be a record high. Something to consider will be how growing conditions affect yield. Higher than expected yields would make an already record crop bigger, while lower yields could bring corn back below record production levels. Both scenarios would likely result in market volatility.

On the demand side, for the new 2023/24 marketing year, USDA estimates ethanol use will be up slightly this year at 5.3 billion bushels. Corn export estimates for the newest marketing year are projected up 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels, after an estimated 696-million-bushel decline this year from 2.47 billion bushels in 2021/22.

Soybeans

Soybean farmers are expected to plant 87.5 million acres of soybeans in 2023/24, unchanged from 2022. This was up nearly 5% from 2020. Soybean yields are projected at 52 bushels per acre for 2023/24 (up 2.5 bushels from the latest estimate for 2022/23) on 86.7 million acres harvested (up slightly). As a result, U.S. soybean farmers are projected to produce 4.51 billion bushels in the new marketing year, 5% above the current year’s latest estimate of 4.28 billion bushels, and 7% above the five-year average. These are bearish numbers for soybeans.

The continuing increase in soybean production for 2022/23 follows rising crush demand to meet a rapidly rising demand for soy-based diesel fuels. Though export demand dipped in 2021/22 to 2.14 billion bushels, it is projected to fall again in 2023/24 to 1.98 billion bushels, which is above the five-year average of 1.96 billion bushels. Demand for soybeans is expected to be up 56 million bushels for 2023/24.

Cotton

Cotton planting expectations for the 2023/24 marketing year are 11.3 million acres, 18% below the 2022 estimate. Farmers are projected to harvest 8.7 million acres, based on historical rates of abandonment and slightly improved soil moisture in the Southern Plains. USDA anticipates a 10% yield drop to 854 pounds per acre, which brings production estimates to 15.5 million 480-lb. bales, down 5.8% from the current year and about 9% below the five-year average.

Wheat

Wheat planted acres in 2023/24 are estimated at 49.9 million acres, up 9% from 2022/23’s 45.7 million acres. Yield is forecasted down 1.8 bushels per acre due to high levels of abandonment in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma. The projected yield would generate wheat production of 1.66 billion bushels, a very slight increase on last year’s wheat crop, but about 7% below the five-year average of 1.79 billion bushels.

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EVENT PREVIEW: You Can Help Reimagine Plant Breeding at the 2024 NAPB Meeting

Video: EVENT PREVIEW: You Can Help Reimagine Plant Breeding at the 2024 NAPB Meeting

Martin Bohn can’t wait to welcome people to the 2024 meeting of the National Association of Plant Breeders meeting being held in St. Louis, Miss., July 21-25. This year’s meeting, hosted by Bayer Crop Science and the University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign, promises to be one of the NAPB’s most important yet, evident in its theme Rethink, Reimagine and Revolutionize.

While the main conference will be held at the St. Louis Union Station Hotel, it will feature a tour of the nearby University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign facilities. Bohn serves not only as co-organizer of the meeting, but as crop sciences professor at the university.

“The conference theme revolves around rethinking, reimagining, and revolutionizing plant breeding. We’ve witnessed significant technological advancements over the past decade, with an abundance of genetic, phenotypic, and environmental data becoming more accessible, alongside the integration of artificial intelligence into data science, opening up new possibilities,” Bohn says.

During the conference, attendees will examine these advancements, reassess the field, and explore how we can adapt to or leverage them. The event will feature three sessions: Reimagining, Rethinking, and Revolutionizing, with speakers delving into each theme. Audience participation is encouraged, with lively Q&A sessions expected.

The climax will be the Revolutionize session, featuring speakers from St. Louis startup companies at the forefront of plant breeding innovation, all hailing from the St. Louis Innovation Hub. It promises to be an exciting showcase of cutting-edge ideas, Bohn says. Ultimately, the conference aims to inspire attendees with the innovative work happening at the University of Illinois and beyond.

Bohn is looking forward to showing off the facilities at the university, where there exists a thriving plant breeding program. Visitors are in for a treat.

“When you’re coming from St. Louis to the university, you might expect to see a lot of corn and soybeans, but there’s much more in store. We’ve put together a diverse program featuring various facets of agricultural innovation,” he says.

“Throughout the day, we’ll showcase national initiatives focused on advanced bioenergy and bioproduct innovation. We’ll also explore autonomous farming, environmental resilience, and soil quality at two different stops.”

You’ll get a peek into the USDA Maize Genetics Cooperation Stock Center, home to crucial genetic stocks for corn breeding, and the USDA Soybean Germplasm Collection. Additionally, the tour will highlight the CornBox, a project by some of Bohn’s colleagues which is their version of a sandbox to test innovations for digital agriculture in a live corn field. Visitors will also see the breeding programs spanning soybeans, corn, small grains, hemp, and more.

“One highlight close to my heart is our organic farming systems breeding program. We’ll also tour our student farm, featuring research on vegetable production systems and how robotics aid in managing insects. And let’s not forget about our local startup companies at the University of Illinois Research Park, showcasing their latest research and products,” Bohn adds.

Visitors will wrap up the day at Riggs Beer Company, known for using locally grown seeds and grains. Their motto, “On our farm, we grow beer,” sets the tone for a relaxed Q&A session with the brewery’s owner and team, accompanied by great food and, of course, some beer.

Of course, organizing a conference like this is no small feat; it’s a monumental task that requires careful coordination and collaboration.

“Initially, I thought it would be as simple as putting together a program and inviting speakers, but it’s far more complex than that. Many moving parts need to come together seamlessly to make it a success,” Bohn says.

The beauty lies in sharing the workload among many shoulders, ensuring that no single organization or individual bears the burden alone. The meeting is being co-hosted by Bayer Crop Science.

“Working together toward a common goal of hosting the best conference possible is a tremendous opportunity to build relationships. I truly believe that the connections we forge with our colleagues and partners at Bayer will endure beyond this event,” Bohn says.

“Working with Bayer has been eye-opening. While we often operate within the confines of academia, collaborating with a company brings a fresh perspective on what matters in the real world. It’s invigorating to explore shared interests and embark on collaborative projects together.”