The announcement that Mosaic Co. is curtailing its phosphate fertilizer production is another blow for farmers, says an analyst.
“It makes a bad situation worse,” said Josh Linville, vice-president of fertilizer with StoneX.
“The phosphate market is in really bad shape.”
Further supply reductions mean there is likely more crop input pain on the horizon.
“As ridiculous as it sounds, we may have already seen the lowest priced phosphate for 2026 barring substantial changes in the global market,” said Linville.
There may not be a price correction until the fall.
“I hope I’m wrong. I want nothing more than to be wrong, but it may not happen,” he said.
Canada does not produce phosphate fertilizer, so farmers are 100 per cent reliant on imports from the United States.
Canada imported an average of 1.46 million tonnes of monoammonium phosphate and 92,027 tonnes of diammonium phosphate in 2018-23 .
Mosaic said the conflict in the Persian Gulf has exacerbated an already stretched global fertilizer market.
“Raw material prices and availability, especially for sulfur, are forcing us to revisit our production plan,” Mosaic president Bruce Bodine said in a conference call, according to a transcript published by the Globe and Mail.
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