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Oat, Barley Output from August

Statistics Canada has shaved more off its already low 2021 Canadian oat and barley production estimates – oats in particular.

According to an updated StatsCan crop production report released Tuesday, this year’s national barley crop will only amount to 7.14 million tonnes. That is down almost 700,000 tonnes from the government agency’s August estimate and is roughly one-third below a year earlier. If accurate, it would be the smallest Canadian barley crop since 7.11 million tonnes in 2014.

Meanwhile, oat production was trimmed to 2.57 million tonnes, compared to 3.07 million in August and 2 million below the previous year’s crop of 4.57 million. It would be the smallest Canadian oat crop since farmers harvested 2.45 million tonnes in 2010, if accurate.

This year’s average expected barley yield was lowered to 43.8 bu/acre, versus 48.1 bu in August and 71.1 bu in 2020. The average oat yield dropped to 60 bu/acre, well down from the August estimate of 71.4 bu and 91.3 bu the previous year.

Saskatchewan barley production is expected at 2.63 million tonnes, down from 3.38 million in August and 4.38 million in 2020, while oat output is now estimated at 1.27 million, compared to 1.47 million last month and 2.29 million a year ago. At just 35.1 bu/acre, the average provincial barley yield is down from 45.1 bu in August and 68.7 bu a year ago. The average oat yield in the province is now seen at 58.2 bu/acre, a drop of more than 11 bu from August and 33.2 bu below 2020.

Barley production in Alberta was actually revised higher, up to 3.64 million tonnes from 3.54 million in August although that is still down from 5.28 million last year. In contrast, the provincial oat crop is estimated at 379,2000 tonnes, down from 470,000 in August and 802,000 a year earlier. The average Alberta barley and oat yields are forecast at 49.6 bu and 50.9 bu/acre, versus 48.3 bu and 63.2 bu last month and 74 and 85.9 bu a year ago.

As for Manitoba, oat production is now projected at 573,700 tonnes, down from 773,900 tonnes in August and 1.11 million last year, while barley is seen at 479,800 tonnes, compared to 511,400 last month and 686,400 in 2020. The average barley yield is forecast at 58.8 bu/acre, versus 62.7 bu last month and 79.9 bu a year ago, and the average oat yield, at 64.4 bu/acre, is down sharply from 86.9 bu in August and 111.4 bu in 2020.

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