Canadian grain and oilseed producers are facing another challenging year ahead, with profit margins projected to remain below average in 2025-26, according to Farm Credit Canada (FCC). While the immediate threat of U.S. tariffs has been temporarily deferred, economic conditions remain difficult, though showing signs of modest improvement.
In its 2025 economic outlook last month, FCC economists J.P. Gervais, Krishen Rangasamy, and Desmond Sobool provided an overview of current global and Canadian economic conditions, along with a look at what may be ahead for the various agricultural sectors. The bottom line was generally weaker economic growth both here and worldwide, and another year of below average profit margins for crop producers in both western and eastern Canada.
According to Sobool, Prairie margins for a wheat-canola rotation (before land costs) are expected to hover just above $50/acre in 2025-26. While this marks an improvement from 2024-25, when some farmers saw negative margins, it remains below the five-year average of approximately $100/acre.
The FCC’s 2025 crop outlook, released after the economic forecast, projects new-crop canola prices at $600/tonne, spring wheat at $330, and durum at $425 — figures that either match or fall below five-year averages. Canola, in particular, is forecasted to decline from its 2024-25 average of $645.
On a more positive note, Sobool highlighted the downward trend in input costs, with fertilizer affordability expected to improve further in 2025-26.
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