Mid-Season Checkup
It’s already well past the halfway point of the 2025/26 marketing year but some of the performance measures, particularly exports, are only available for January. This export data gives us a bit of an indication of how things performed through the first half of the year and admittedly, are backward looking. Since then too, some significant changes have occurred in pulse markets, particularly for peas. There are also a few risks remaining in the market that could impact the last few months of 2025/26. Still, it’s worth reviewing how the first half of the year could impact the remainder of 2025/26.
Pea exports in the first half of 2025/26 have been disappointing, but that’s not surprising. With a few small exceptions, China has been absent as a buyer, and monthly totals have mostly been below average. Canadian exports to India have been sporadic, well below year-ago levels. The main bright spot has been a near doubling in exports to other Asian countries, particularly Bangladesh.
Overall, Canadian pea exports for the first six months of 2025/26 were 1.32 mln tonnes, the slowest pace since 2021/22 and well below the 5-year average of 1.55 mln tonnes. But there is good news early in the second half of the marketing year. The CGC weekly data is more current and shows a sharp increase in February exports, which we’re forecasting at 375,000 tonnes with solid performance again in March. This reflects the return of China as a customer due to the removal of import tariffs, effective March 1. While it’s not clear how the last few months will turn out, our full-year export forecast is now 2.7 mln tonnes, which would end up the highest since 2020/21.
Canadian lentil exports dipped in January but the first-half total of 1.19 mln tonnes was still slightly ahead of average at 1.11 mln tonnes. India was the largest destination but exports to Türkiye were also very strong due to its crop failure in 2025. We expect this strong Turkish demand will continue into the second half.
While the first half export pace has been solid, the CGC data shows lentil exports (similar to peas) are also seeing an uptick in the second half. While first-half lentil exports in 2025/26 were trailing last year, CGC exports (which don’t capture container exports) have pulled ahead in the last few weeks. There are also signs in the CGC’s delivery and shipment data that these export volumes will remain strong for at least the medium-term. Our full-year export forecast for 2025/26 is 2.25 mln tonnes, more than 400,000 tonnes above the previous year.
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