U.S. corn stocks as of Sept. 1 came in well above market expectations, confirming a larger 2025-26 carryout than previously anticipated and sending Chicago corn futures sharply lower.
The USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, released Wednesday, pegged Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.095 billion bu, up 35% from 1.551 billion bu a year earlier. The figure was also 173 million bu above the USDA’s September supply-demand estimate of 1.922 billion bu for 2025-26 ending stocks and 184 million bu above the average trade guess. Corn futures fell more than 20 cents/bu Wednesday following the report but were showing small gains of around 2 cents as of Thursday morning.
Of the Sept. 1 corn inventory, 787 million bu were stored on farms and 1.31 billion bu were held off-farm. June-August corn disappearance totaled 3.2 billion bu, up from 3.1 billion bu during the same period last year.
For soybeans, Sept. 1 stocks were estimated at 315 million bu, down 3% or 10 million bu from a year earlier. The figure was also 6 million bu below trade expectations and down from the 325-million bu ending stocks figure in the September USDA supply-demand report.
Soybean inventories included 90.4 million bu stored on farms and 225 million bu held off-farm. June-August disappearance increased to 744 million bu from 683 million bu a year earlier.
Due to adjustments in planted and harvested area (but not yield), the USDA also revised its 2025 U.S. corn and soybean production estimates lower as part of the stocks report.
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