September Crop Report Shows Slight Yield Declines

Sep 17, 2019

While on the higher side of pre-report estimates, the USDA September Crop Production report shows corn and soybean yields are down from 2018 and lower than the projections posted in the USDA August Crop Production report.

Corn Production

Corn production for 2019 is now projected at 13.8 billion bushels, 1% lower than the August estimate of 13.9 billion bushels and down 4% from 2018. September corn yield on a national scale is estimated to be 168.2 bushels per acre in 2019, down more than 8 bushels per acre from 2018 and 1.3 bushels per acre lower than the August estimate. Across the U.S., corn yields were the highest in Iowa at 191 bushels per acre, followed by Nebraska at 186 bushels per acre, Figure 1.

Corn yields took the biggest month-to-month hit in the Northwest and the South. Yield projections in Idaho and Washington dropped by 10 bushels per acre, while yield expectation dropped by 7 bushels per acre in Michigan. In Louisiana, the average corn yield was reduced by 15 bushels per acre. Note, these yield expectations are as of September 1, so potential yield declines related to Hurricane Dorian were not included in these estimates. Figure 2 highlights the change in yield projections from the August report to the September report.

Soybean Production

Soybean production in 2019 is now projected at 3.6 billion bushels, down slightly from the August estimate but down nearly 1 billion bushels, or 20%, from 2018. Soybean acreage is down by 12.5 million acres from last year. The large production decline is driven by the trade impasse with China and the lower soybean exports and prices that have come with it. The national average soybean yield was projected at 47.9 bushels per acre, 3.7 bushels lower than last year and down 0.6 bushels per acre from the August report. Soybean yields were the highest in portions of the western Corn Belt, Figure 3.

Relative to the August projection, Texas saw the largest decrease in its soybean yield, but the update is only a slight decrease from 2018 yields. Similarly, Georgia, Virginia and Maryland had lower expected yields from the August report to the September report, which pushed those states below their 2018 yields, Figure 4.

Summary

Excessive spring rains and flooding across the Midwest forced delayed and prevented plantings, pushing crop yields down in 2019. As illustrated in Figures 5 and 6, most states will experience corn and soybean yield declines in 2019.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.