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Southern Rust Continues to Develop Across Iowa

By Alison Robertson and Rebecca Vittetoe

Southern rust has continued to spread across Iowa and increase in severity since the disease was first reported in mid-July. This is not surprising considering the weather we have been having. July was warm and extremely wet across the state, and the precipitation has continued through this first 10 days of August.

Favorable conditions for southern rust development

Southern rust thrives in warm (77-82°F), wet (dew, rain) conditions. At least 6 hours of leaf wetness is required for infection to occur. Under these conditions, the time between a spore infecting a leaf to the production of a pustule filled with new spores is 7 to 10 days. Compare this to tar spot (14-21 days) and gray leaf spot (14 days).  Consequently, southern rust epidemics can develop very quickly (Figure 1). Once we get into the cooler days of fall, southern rust development should slow.

Is it too late to apply a fungicide? 

According to this resource from the Crop Protection Network, applying a fungicide through R3 (milk) is likely to be beneficial. Only with severe disease pressure would a fungicide application be recommended at R4 (dough). I would consider severe southern rust disease pressure to be southern rust present on the ear leaf or in the upper canopy on most plants in the field at approximately 1% disease severity.  I’ve heard lots of chatter that southern rust is severe in the lower canopy.  Remember that the ear leaf and canopy above are filling grain. These are the leaves we need to apply a fungicide to and protect yield.

Source : iastate.edu

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.