Steep Fertilizer and Fuel Prices Could Squeeze U.S. Farmers for Months, Economists Warn

May 06, 2026

By Tadeo Ruiz Sandoval

Megan Horsager is not looking forward to buying more fuel for her farm.

She’s got a large, white, cylindrical fuel tank that sits in the middle of her family’s row-crop farm in Montevideo, a city in southwest Minnesota. She draws diesel from the tank whenever her farm’s machines need a refill. While she buys her fertilizer and other planting needs in the fall, ahead of planting season, she opts to buy fuel whenever her tank needs a top-up.

That next refill will happen in June or July, Horsager said.

"I'm just kicking myself that I didn't price more ahead of time,” Horsager said. “Usually, June hasn't been a bad time to buy fuel, but you don't plan on the global events."

The price of key agricultural necessities such as diesel and nitrogen fertilizer has soared since the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade passageway, has largely been choked off amid the war in Iran.

The price of urea, a major nitrogen-based fertilizer, shot up to nearly $700 per ton in late April from $455 per ton on Feb. 27, the day before the war in Iran broke out. On-highway diesel prices clocked around $5.35 a gallon in late April, a hike from the $3.81 a gallon reported the week the war began.

While Horsager didn’t book enough diesel in advance, she is set with fertilizer. However, not everyone is.

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Video: Why Invest in Canada’s Seed Future? | On The Brink: Episode 3

Darcy Unger just invested millions to build a brand-new seed plant on his farm in Stonewall, Manitoba so when it’s time for his sons to take over, they have the tools they need to succeed.

Right now, 95% of the genetics they’ll be growing come from Canadian plant breeders.

That number matters.

When fusarium hit Western Canada in the late 90s, it was Canadian breeders who responded, because they understood Canadian conditions. That ability to react quickly to what’s happening on Canadian farms is exactly what’s at risk when breeding programs lose funding.

For farmers like Darcy, who have made generational investments based on the assumption that better genetics will keep coming, the stakes are direct and personal.

We’re on the brink of decisions that will shape our agricultural future for not only our generation, but also the ones to come.

What direction will we choose?

On The Brink is a year-long video series traveling across Canada to meet the researchers, breeders, farmers, seed companies, and policymakers shaping the future of Canadian plant breeding. Each week, a new story. Each story, a piece of the bigger picture.

Episode 3 is above. Follow Seed World Canada to catch every episode, and tell us: Do you think the next generation will have the tools they need to success when they takeover? How is the future going to look?