El Niño begins in the tropical Pacific, a long way from an Alberta field. But its influence doesn’t stay there. By changing ocean temperatures, winds, and the path of the jet stream, El Niño can rearrange seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns across continents.
It can’t tell a grower whether a particular quarter will catch a January storm or miss a June rain. But it can change the odds behind the season — and that’s enough to matter when decisions about water, seed, inputs, and risk are being made months ahead.
Dr. Mohammad Azhar Ehsan, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research, says the 2026 event developed quickly through spring and summer and was already very strong by late summer. Forecast models pointed to further strengthening and persistence into spring 2027.
“We are not yet at the peak time or the peak window time of ENSO,” Ehsan says.
For Prairie growers, the sensible response is neither alarm nor indifference. It’s to understand what a seasonal climate signal can — and can’t — say, then identify the farm decisions that become harder or more expensive if winter turns warmer and drier than normal.
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