US Farmers Expect to Plant More Corn and Soybean Acreage

Apr 03, 2020

Producers surveyed across the United States intend to plant an estimated 97.0 million acres of corn in 2020, up 8% from last year, according to the Prospective Plantings report released today by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Planted acreage intentions for corn are up or unchanged in 38 of the 48 estimating states. South Dakota, with 6.00 million acres, had the largest increase of 1.65 million acres from 2019. If realized, the planted area of corn in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon will be the largest on record.

Soybean growers intend to plant 83.5 million acres in 2020, up 10% from last year. If realized this will be the third highest planted acreage on record. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 22 of the 29 states estimated.

The Prospective Plantings report provides the first official, survey based estimates of U.S. farmers’ 2020 planting intentions. NASS’s acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of approximately 80,000 farm operators across the United States. Other key findings in the report are:

All wheat planted area for 2020 is estimated at 44.7 million acres, down 1% from 2019. This represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.
Winter wheat planted area, at 30.8 million acres, is slightly below the previous estimate and down 1% from last year. This is the second lowest planted acreage on record.
Area planted to other spring wheat for 2020 is expected to total 12.6 million acres, down 1% from 2019.
Durum wheat is expected to total 1.29 million acres for 2020, down 4% from last year.
All cotton planted area for 2020 is expected to total 13.7 million acres, less than 1% below last year.

NASS today also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report to provide estimates of on-farm and off-farm stocks as of March 1. Key findings in that report include:

Corn stocks totaled 7.95 billion bushels, down 8% from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were down 13% from a year ago, but off-farm stocks were up less than 1%.
Soybeans stored totaled 2.25 billion bushels, down 17% from March 1, 2019. On-farm soybean stocks were down 20% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were down 15%.
All wheat stored totaled 1.41 billion bushels, down 11% from a year ago. On-farm all wheat stocks went down 8% from last year, while off-farm stocks went down 12%.
Durum wheat stored totaled 51.5 million bushels, down 31% from March 1, 2019. On-farm Durum stocks were down 42% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks of Durum wheat were down 17%.

The Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks, and all other NASS reports are available online at www.nass.usda.gov.

Source : usda.gov

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.