US and global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were both revised higher in the USDA’s November supply-demand update on Friday.
The November update – the first to be issued since September due to the now-ended US government shutdown – pegged 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks at 901 million bu, up from 844 million in September and 851 million a year earlier.
Global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were reported at 271.43 million tonnes, versus 264.06 million in September and 261.44 million. If accurate, it would mark the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019-20, the USDA said.
Heading into today’s report, traders and analysts were looking for more modest increases in US and global wheat ending stocks. The average trade guess for US stocks was 867 million bu, and just over 266 million for global stocks. Wheat futures were 5-10 cents bu lower.
All this month’s increase in US wheat ending stocks can be attributed to the higher production number (1.985 billion bu) contained in the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary. The USDA made no changes compared to September on the US wheat demand side.
World wheat production for 2025-26 climbed 12.7 million tonnes this month to 828.89 million, with sizeable increases in major exporting countries, including Argentina (+2.5 million tonnes), Australia (+1.5 million), Canada (+1 million), Russia (+1.5 million), Kazakhstan, the EU, and the US.
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