The weather and market action will still have a major influence on how much spring wheat ultimately gets planted in the US this year, but a decline in acres compared to a year earlier still seems like the most probable outcome, an industry official says.
Following last week’s USDA prospective plantings report which pegged 2025 American spring wheat intentions at 10.02 million acres, down about 600,000 or 6% from a year earlier and potentially the lowest since 1970, Jim Peterson, policy and marketing director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said last week he is not expecting any significant change as things stand now.
“It’s pretty clear it would take a notable rally in wheat prices prior to mid-May to reverse these trends,” he said. “It may lessen the level of decrease, but . . .”
Going into last week’s report, most traders and analysts were expecting a decline in spring wheat acres from 2024, but only a modest drop of around 100,000 acres.
Combined with an estimated 2% year-over-year fall in durum area to 2.02 acres and a slight decline in winter wheat acres, the fall in spring wheat intentions puts US all wheat area for 2025 at 45.35 million acres. That is down 2% from 2024 and potentially the second smallest American wheat planted area since records began in 1919.
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