U.S. Agricultural Export Trends: Stability, Growth, and a China-Driven Rollercoaster

By Andrew Muhammad

Now that the December 2025 trade data have been released, we can look back over the past fifteen years to evaluate how U.S. agricultural exports have evolved across major markets and how shifting global dynamics, especially the dramatic rise and subsequent decline of exports to China, have shaped overall performance. U.S. agricultural exports from 2010 through 2025 reveals a story of both stability and notable volatility. Total agricultural exports rose from $119 billion in 2010 to a high of $196 billion in 2022, before settling at $171 billion in 2025. Exports in 2025 were more than $5.0 billion lower than the previous year, driven primarily by reduced soybean shipments, along with declines in coarse grains, beef, wine, and rice. Much of the variation in U.S. agricultural trade can be traced to the dramatic rise and fall of U.S. exports to China, a market that transformed from the leading U.S. destination to a source of sharp decline. Indeed, the widening U.S. agricultural trade deficit, which grew from –$37.6 billion in 2024 to –$41.7 billion in 2025, stems largely from the steep collapse in exports to China (USDA, 2026). 

Figure 1 shows U.S. agricultural exports to the major destinations—China, Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and Japan. With the exception of China, most major U.S. export markets exhibit steady or gradually increasing demand, even during periods of heightened trade tensions and uncertainty. However, it’s hard to ignore the extremely volatile path of U.S. agricultural exports to China. Beginning at $18 billion in 2010, exports to China climbed substantially, peaking at $38 billion in 2022, primarily due to rising exports from the Phase One Trade Agreement and relatively high commodity prices. However, exports to China have significantly declined since, falling to just $8 billion in 2025, representing a loss of $30 billion in only three years. No other major market exhibits such a rollercoaster pattern. This deterioration also helps explain why total U.S. exports fell from $196 billion in 2022 to $171 billion in 2025, despite persistent exports elsewhere.

In contrast, exports to nearly every other major destination remained stable or even trended upward. Mexico increased from $15 billion in 2010 to $31 billion in 2025. Canada remained consistently strong, rising from $18 billion to $28 billion over the same period. The EU and Japan both show moderate, incremental increases, with none experiencing sharp swings comparable to China. Overall, recent trends illustrate two simultaneous dynamics: the inherent volatility of U.S. agricultural trade with China and the remarkable stability of U.S. exports to virtually every other major market. While the collapse in Chinese demand resulted in a noticeable drop in total exports after 2022, the resilience of other destinations helped buffer the decline. These trends highlight both the opportunities and the vulnerabilities that come with relying heavily on a single, now‑unpredictable trading partner.