The March 31 Prospective Plantings report indicated that U.S. farmers intend to plant 91.7 million acres of corn for the 2014/15 marketing year, 4 percent less than was planted for 2013/14. Assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer weather, production is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, just 10 million bushels over last season. With increased carryin stocks, projected supplies in 2014/15 are 2 percent higher than in 2013/14. Exports are forecast down 200 million bushels to 1,700 million bushels due to expected competition from South America. Exports, in combination with unchanged food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, and lower feed and residual use result in a higher carryout and support a price range of $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel for 2014/15, down from the $4.50 to $4.80 projected for 2013/14. For 2013/14, higher projected exports and FSI use this month reduce projected ending stocks, raising the projected price range 10 cents on the low end of the range.
World coarse grain production for 2014/15 is projected down 1 percent from 2013/14, but higher beginning stocks support a small increase in supplies. Global coarse grain use is projected to grow more slowly in 2014/15 than in the previous year, as pork and poultry diseases limit meat production growth. World ending stocks are projected up slightly, with most of the increase in the United States.
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Source: USDA