The National Agricultural Statistics Service's Crop Production 2011 Summary and
January Grain Stocks reports revealed larger than expected corn supplies this month.
Feed grain production for 2011/12 is estimated at 323.5 million tons, up 0.4 million from
last month as higher estimated corn production more than offset lower sorghum output.
Feed grain ending stocks are forecast down 0.3 million tons to 23.8 million tons.
Corn production is estimated 48 million bushels higher, with harvested acreage advanced
45,000 acres and the national average yield raised 0.5 bushels per acre. Projected
2011/12 corn ending stocks are lowered 2 million bushels, as a 50-million-bushel
increase in exports more than offsets the larger supply. Ending stocks at 6.7 percent of
projected usage will be the tightest since 1995/96. The projected season average prices
are lowered for corn, sorghum, and barley. Global coarse grain production is up slightly
as a sharp reduction in prospects for Argentina is offset by increases for Ukraine and
other countries. Reduced Argentine exports and increased imports by China support
increased U.S. corn exports. Foreign 2011/12 coarse grain ending stocks are forecast
higher this month, up 3 percent from a year.
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