The 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include lower production and higher offtake, resulting in lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production is lowered 1 percent as a 500,000-bale reduction for Texas—due to larger estimated abandonment—is partially offset by increases in other states. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are increased 400,000 bales to 12.2 million, reflecting larger estimated import demand by China and supportive data on U.S. export sales to date. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.8 million bales, equal to 31 percent of total use. The projected range for the average price received by producers of 66-71 cents per pound is raised 1 cent on the lower end.
This month’s world 2012/13 estimates shows higher production and slightly lower consumption, resulting in ending stocks of 81.7 million bales. Production is raised mainly in China, where recent levels of cotton classings and purchases for the national reserve indicate that the crop is larger than previously estimated. Production is also raised in Australia but is lowered in the United States. Global consumption is revised down slightly, mainly reflecting a reduction for India. A 1.0-million-bale increase for China’s imports is boosting world trade, and exports are raised for India, the United States, Brazil, and Australia. China’s imports are forecast higher due to strong imports to date and tight free stocks resulting from the large accumulation of cotton in the national reserve. World stocks are increased 2.5 percent from last month.