This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased
domestic use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at
14.827 billion bushels, up 241 million from last month on an increased yield forecast. If
realized, the crop would be the second highest on record. Among the major producing states,
yields are forecast to be record high in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, and South
Dakota. Corn supplies are higher from last month, as a larger crop more than offsets a small
decline in beginning stocks due to higher estimated exports for 2017/18. Feed and residual
use for 2018/19 is raised 50 million bushels with a larger crop and lower expected prices.
Corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels. With supply rising more than use, corn
ending stocks are up 90 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price
received by producers is projected 10 cents lower with a midpoint of $3.50 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast up 5.1 million tons to 1,347.2 million.
The 2018/19 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater consumption,
increased trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast
higher than last month with projected increases for the EU, Angola, Paraguay, Turkey, and
Serbia more than offsetting declines for Canada, South Africa, and Guatemala. EU corn
production is raised, mostly reflecting increases for Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and France.
In both Bulgaria and Romania, yields are expected to be record high. World barley production
is lowered, with reductions for the EU, Australia, and Ukraine more than offsetting increases
for Kazakhstan and Russia.
Corn exports for 2018/19 are raised for Ukraine, Serbia, and Paraguay, but lowered forSource : WASDE
Canada and South Africa. Imports are raised for the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Guatemala, with
partly offsetting declines for Algeria and Saudi Arabia. For 2017/18, exports are lowered for
both Brazil and Argentina, reflecting slower-than-expected trade to date. Foreign corn ending
stocks for 2018/19 are down from last month, with declines for Argentina, South Africa,
Ukraine, Canada, and Serbia more than offsetting increases for Angola, Paraguay, the EU,
Brazil, Turkey, and India. Global corn stocks, at 157.0 million tons, are up 1.5 million from last