U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 403.3 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013/14 mostly on larger corn beginning stocks. Corn production is projected at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2013/14 record with higher expected yields more than offsetting the year-to- year reduction in planted area. The corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up 6.5 bushels from 2013/14, based on a weather adjusted yield trend model and assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer weather. (See Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS, July 2013, www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fds-feed-outlook/fds-13g-01.aspx.) Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 15.1 billion bushels, up 330 million from 2013/14.
U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is projected 2 percent lower than in 2013/14. Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower with animal numbers down from 2013/14. Exports are projected 200 million bushels lower than this month’s higher projection for 2013/14 as larger expected foreign supplies and lower import demand limit U.S. shipments. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2014/15 is expected to be unchanged on the year with gasoline consumption expected to remain flat in 2015. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, up 580 million from the 2013/14 projection. With the larger carryout, the season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel, down from $4.50 to $4.80 per bushel for 2013/14.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 1,461.0 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013/14 as the year-to-year increase in world beginning stocks more than offsets a reduction in world output. Projected global corn production for 2014/15, at a record 979.1 million tons, is virtually unchanged from 2013/14. Expected decreases for Ukraine, Brazil, India, and South Africa are mostly offset by increases for China, Argentina, Russia, and Mexico. Ukraine production is lowered 4.9 million tons from last year’s record level as the reduced value of the local currency keeps input prices high and reduces expected use of fertilizer and other inputs. Global sorghum and millet production are projected higher for 2014/15, but reductions are expected for barley, oats, rye, and mixed grains.
Global corn trade for 2014/15 is projected lower with imports projected down year to year for China and Mexico. Corn exports for 2014/15 are projected lower for Ukraine and the United States. Exports, however, are projected higher for Argentina and Paraguay. World corn consumption is projected at a record 965.8 million tons, up 17.0 million from 2013/14 on higher use in China, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and Japan. Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 181.7 million tons, up 13.3 million tons on the year and at a 15-year high.