By Dr. Andrew Griffith
This is an annual article summarizing some key information of the January 1 Cattle Inventory report that was released at the end of January for 2026. There were certainly some surprises for some and the report may have been less surprising for others. Regardless of if the survey is correct or not, it does provide a consistent estimation of cattle inventory by type and region, which gives perspective on how cattle inventory has changed over the past 12 months.
Jumping right in, all cattle and calves inventory as of January 1, 2026 declined 316,900 head (-0.4%) compared to the previous year totaling 86.16 million head. Much of this decline in total inventory originates from fewer beef cows. Beef cow inventory declined 284,800 head (-1.0%) from the prior year and totals 27.61 million head. There were several folks who thought beef cow inventory would have actually increased over the past year since cow slaughter in 2025 was down more than 17 percent compared to 2024, but 2025 beef cow slaughter was being compared to a year (2024) in which cow slaughter was rather large compared to the total cow inventory. Alternatively, dairy cow inventory moved the other direction with an increase of 187,500 head (2.0%) to 9.57 million head. This is the largest quantity of dairy cows in the U.S. since 1993. This increase makes good sense in that milk prices were strong most of 2025 until recently and a one-day old beef x dairy cross calf is worth more than $1,000. It is clear economic profits supported the decision to grow dairy cow inventory.
The calf crop, which also includes calves originating from the dairy industry, totaled 32.90 million head in 2025. This means the calf crop in 2025 was 520,900 head smaller (-1.6%) than 2024. In short, this is essentially like cutting a full week’s worth of finished cattle slaughter out of the market. Despite the smaller calf crop, cattle producers held back 4.71 million heifers for beef cow replacement in 2026. This quantity represents a 41,700 head increase (0.9%) compared to 2025. This may seem like a small increase given the economic incentive to retain more females, but there were approximately 260,000 less heifers produced in 2025 compared to 2024, which means fewer heifers were available to select replacements. The discussion could be further discussed as it relates to “other heifers”, “steers 500 pounds and over,” “bulls weighing 500 pounds or more,” and “heifers, steers, and bulls (calves) under 500 pounds.” The only category of those listed that did not see year-over-year declines was bulls weighing 500 pounds and over.
Source : tennessee.edu