Corn growing in a field is a typical Canadian sight, but foreign discord may cause a shift in farming practices. Photo by Waldemar Brandt on Unsplash
Ontario farmers are bracing for a turbulent spring as fertilizer and fuel prices surge in response to the escalating conflict involving Iran, a development that analysts say could reshape planting decisions across North America.
The spike in nitrogen costs—the most critical and expensive input for corn—is already prompting US farmers to consider shifting acres into soybeans, and Ontario growers may soon face the same dilemma.
Fertilizer prices at major US import hubs jumped sharply in the days following the conflict’s escalation, rising from US$516 (~CDN $700.76) to as high as US$683 (~CDN $927.64) per metric ton.
Ontario relies heavily on imported nitrogen, meaning local growers are exposed to the same global supply disruptions and price volatility. With spring planting only weeks away, many farmers are now reassessing their budgets and crop plans.
Corn’s heavy nitrogen requirements make it particularly vulnerable in years of geopolitical instability. US analysts warn that high fertilizer costs could push more acres out of corn and into soybeans, which require far less nitrogen. Ontario growers farming on marginal or lower‑yielding ground may feel similar pressure, especially if fertilizer shipments are delayed or prices continue to climb.
While core corn‑producing regions in Ontario—including Chatham‑Kent, Essex, Oxford, and Perth— are likely to maintain their rotations, the economics are shifting. Some growers may reduce nitrogen application rates to manage costs, a move that risks yield drag if weather conditions don’t cooperate. Others may opt for soybeans, which offer lower input costs and more predictable margins in volatile years.
At the same time, any reduction in US corn acres could tighten North American supply, potentially supporting stronger corn prices later in the year. That dynamic may help offset some of the cost pressure for Ontario farmers, though the balance between higher input costs and potential price gains remains uncertain.
With global tensions disrupting supply chains and driving up energy prices, Ontario growers are entering the 2026 planting season with more variables than usual—and far less room for error.