By Joe Janzen
Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and a major corn exporter, faces production challenges in the upcoming 2027 crop year. Low commodity prices, high fertilizer costs, difficult credit conditions, and the likelihood of El Niño-related extreme weather all factor into Brazil’s production prospects. While these issues are not unique to Brazil, they are likely to have their largest and most immediate impact on global agricultural commodity supply there. U.S. crop acreage and input decisions for 2026 are now essentially set and U.S. growing season weather has thus far been conducive to crop development. Indeed, some have questioned whether Brazilian soybean and corn production will continue to grow in 2027 (Sousa 2026).
Lower Brazilian crop production would buck historical trends. For the past fifteen years, growth in Brazil’s expected soybean and corn output, as measured by pre-planting production forecasts, has been steady. Average annual expected production increases are about 6.5% for both crops. Recently released USDA production forecasts for the 2026-27 marketing year show essentially similar growth for Brazil in 2027. If realized, forecast production levels of both crops would exceed estimated levels for 2026, which are already historic records.
This article documents both the long-run production trends and short-run production challenges for corn and soybeans in Brazil. It scrutinizes initial production forecasts from the USDA for 2027 corn and soybean production in Brazil, which appear to be much more in line with long-run trends than with a productive retreat on the part of Brazilian farmers. While it may be tempting to forecast lower production now, Brazilian farmers have increased production in the past even when economic conditions have been difficult. Weather-driven supply shocks rather than farmer-driven production decisions explain more year-to-year variation in production. Continued growth in Brazilian crop supply would further dampen the prospects for high commodity prices needed to boost farm profitability in the United States.
Long-Run Production Trends and Current Forecasts
Figure 1 plots realized Brazilian production as reported by USDA against initial forecasts for soybeans and corn since 2011. Three features stand out. First, production has grown steadily. Final soybean output has climbed from roughly 75 million metric tons (MMT) in 2011 to 180 MMT in 2026, while corn production has risen from about 57 MMT to 138 MMT. Growth has been more consistent than episodic, averaging nearly 6.5% per year over the past fifteen years. That trend held even through the mid-2010s price collapse: Brazil’s production routinely hit records during this period, with the notable exception of 2016 when El Niño crop losses shrank yield and production.
Second, the initial forecasts rise steadily over time for both crops. USDA’s procedure for generating production forecasts is essentially one of linear growth, especially for soybeans. Simply, USDA forecasters have not made dramatic changes to production forecasts based on current economic conditions. Forecasts for 2027 production follow this procedure, with the recently released initial soybean production forecast 6.1% higher and the initial corn forecast 6.2% higher than the initial forecasts from one year ago. If realized in 2027, both levels would be production records for Brazil.
Finally, the initial forecasts have themselves been reliable guides to eventual production. Pre-planting expectations rarely diverge far from final outcomes, and where they do, the gaps reflect within-season surprises rather than persistent forecast bias. Against this backdrop, the newly released 2027 forecasts are unremarkable: both crops are projected to extend their long-run trajectories. A production decline in 2027 would be the historical exception, not the rule.
Source : illinois.edu