It’s hard to believe we are more than halfway through June already. While temperatures during World Pork Expo were quite pleasant, our hog markets were sizzling! Both cash and cutout moved higher than most expected that week. You could feel the excitement in the air.
Fast forward another two weeks and markets have continued to move higher. The pork carcass cutout posted solid gains this past week, climbing 5.1% week-over-week to an average of $113.36, now up 13.0% year-over-year. Lean hog futures also advanced across the board. The front-month June contract moved up 1.7% on the week to an average price of $102.58. Deferred months posted similar gains: July (+1.7%), August (+2.4%), October (+2.5%), December (+2.4%), February ‘26 (+1.6%) and April ‘26 (+1.2%).
With the impact of an ugly 20-month window from late 2022 to early 2024 in the rearview mirror, it is fun to look forward and talk about current margins and forward curves that look quite favorable. Hog prices averaged higher than a year ago in 17 of the 23 weeks so far in 2025. With all this momentum, how aggressive does one get locking in margins? To help answer this, let’s dive deeper.
Question #1: Tariffs and the global stage
I know we are all tired of talking about it. It’s felt like a whipsaw all year. Given everything that has happened, U.S. exports are only down 3.8% by volume through April 2025 compared to the first four months of 2024. Just reading headlines, one would think we should be in a worse position. Headlines continue to give hope for some type of resolution on the world stage. Trying to predict outcomes for tariffs may be more challenging than predicting hog prices.
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