World Soybean Trade Seen at Record High

The International Grains Council is forecasting a new record high in world soybean trade this year.

 

In its monthly Grain Market Report released on Thursday, the IGC raised its 2019-20 global soybean trade forecast by 3 million tonnes from July to a new peak of 164 million. The 7% year-over-year increase is tied to continued heavy shipments from South America, chiefly Brazil, and larger shipments to the world’s No. 1 soybean buyer, China, the IGC said.

 

In 2018-19, world soybean trade amounted to 152 million tonnes.

 

According to a forecast this week from Brazil’s National Association of Cereal Exporters, 2019-20 Brazilian soybean exports through the end of August will reach 75.8 million tonnes, a 34.3% increase from the previous year. Although up sharply over the past several weeks, US soybean exports to China so far in 2019-20 remain below pre-trade war levels, leaving Brazil as the main beneficiary of Chinese demand.

 

But this year’s new high in world soybean trade is not expected to last long. In its 2020-21 projections, the IGC placed trade 1 million tonnes higher at 164 million.

 

Meanwhile, the IGC’s higher 2020-21 world soybean trade estimate is supported by rising production. Total world soybean output is estimated this month at a record 373 million tonnes, up 8 million from the July forecast and 10% above the previous year. Global soybean ending stocks for 2020-21 are seen at 52 million tonnes, up from 48 million in July and 47 million in 2019-20.