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Ethanol output in US hits three-month low

By Farms.com

The US Energy Information Administration reports a significant downtrend in ethanol production, registering a 13-week low. The average production last week dropped to 954,000 barrels a day, marking a steady decline influenced by annual maintenance routines.

This trend reflects a broader context of reduced ethanol demand and shifting market conditions. The production rates have not only decreased by 29,000 barrels daily from the previous week but also show a year-on-year decline of 13,000 barrels.

The impact on ethanol stocks is equally notable, with inventories falling to a nine-week low of 25.733 million barrels. This is a slight decrease from the previous week, though stocks remain significantly higher compared to last year by over 3 million barrels. 

In terms of market operations, the volume of ethanol purchased by refiners and blenders has remained stable, yet the overall gasoline market witnessed a nearly 3% decline in supply volume. Ethanol exports have also experienced a downturn, averaging 134,000 barrels per day, which is 41,000 less than the week before.

Despite these challenges, corn utilization for ethanol production is on track to meet or exceed expectations for the year, according to the USDA's projections. The next update from the USDA, expected on May 10th, is anticipated to provide further insights into the market trends and projections for the remainder of the marketing year.

As stakeholders brace for these updates, the industry remains focused on navigating through the seasonal and market-driven challenges it currently faces.


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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.