If supported by good weather, expectations for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop are high!
By Aleah Harle, Farms.com Risk Management Intern
Expectations for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop is looking promising, with a potential record Safrinha corn crop of 98 million metric tons on the horizon! Corn area in Brazil is currently 4% higher than last year, as stronger prices have encouraged farmers to increase their plantings.
The USDA currently estimates Brazil’s corn area at 22.3 million hectares with production at 126.0 million metric tons as provided by CONAB. There were growing concerns at the start of planting season in February about dry weather and a less favorable forecast that could threaten yield during the summer from September to October.
However, favorable weather conditions, with consistent rainfall throughout much of the growing season thus far and in the month of April has supported the growth of the Safrinha corn crop, with more moisture expected -- about 190% of normal -- for the first half of May.
Brazil typically begins planting the Safrinha crop in January, following the summer harvest. The Safrinha crop, also known as the winter crop, accounts for 75%–80% of Brazil’s total corn harvest and is available for export from June through September.
The limited rainfall from the end of January through early March – despite these months falling within Brazil’s typical wet season - allowed South American farmers to plant the second corn crop quickly, even though progress initially lagged due to a later-than-usual soybean harvest.
As the season progressed, rainfall totals continued to slip from normal, along with declining soil moisture. Below-average rainfall, particularly in February, led to deteriorating crop conditions despite more frequent rainfall in March and average rains in April.
Brazil did complete a successful first corn harvest, with CONAB increasing its 2024/25 corn production estimate by nearly 2 million tonnes, thanks to stronger summer corn yields and improved acreage. Crop Scout Cordonnier increased his production forecast by 3 mmt to 125 mmt vs. USDA at 126 mmt on favorable late season conditions.
Active monsoon rains will help corn through pollination and grain fill and makes the USDA’s forecast at 126 mmt more likely as 85-90% of the crop is made and another record Brazil corn crop. The 126mmt is 6 mmt larger than last year at 119 mmt, which is 235 million more bushels
With the additional U.S. 2025 corn acres expected to increase by 4.7+ million acres vs. last year, and the 25/26 global U.S. corn balance sheet ending stocks, the stocks to use ratios will be on the rise.
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Photo Credit: USDA and Produção Agrícola Municipal