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Cattle futures dip, pork exports surge - U.S. Livestock market update

By Farms.com

In recent trading sessions, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) cattle futures saw a decline, extending for the third consecutive session. Concerns over future beef demand weighed on prices, with technical trading pushing the most-active August live cattle contract to a two-week low.

The downturn in cattle prices was also attributed to shifts by hedge funds, who adjusted their positions ahead of the summer months, leading to profit-taking at month's end. Additionally, the increased weight of slaughter-ready animals compared to last year added pressure on futures prices.

As boxed beef cutout prices decreased, market participants questioned the potential summer demand for U.S. beef. The choice boxed beef cutout value eased down to $313.20 per hundredweight, reflecting broader concerns about market stability and peak pricing.

Conversely, lean hog futures experienced an uptick driven by a surge in weekly U.S. pork exports. Traders noted discussions in the market regarding overselling of hog futures and observed stability in pork cutout prices.

The most-active CME July hog futures ended higher, while August live cattle futures closed lower. June live cattle and August feeder cattle futures also settled down, marking mixed performance across livestock segments.

These developments underscore the dynamic nature of the U.S. livestock market, influenced by factors such as demand fluctuations, trade dynamics, and investor sentiment.

Market participants continue to monitor these trends closely to navigate market uncertainties and capitalize on emerging opportunities.


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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.