USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Reports Reveal Shifting Crop Strategies for the 2026 Growing Season
As many commodity experts predicted, U.S. producers are signaling a notable shift in crop priorities for the 2026 growing season, according to the Prospective Plantings report released today by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The survey-based report provides the first official look at farmers’ planting intentions and is paired with updated Grain Stocks data offering insight into current supplies.
Corn Acreage Expected to Decline Across Most States
Producers across the United States intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, representing a 3 percent decline from last year. Corn planting intentions are down in 37 of the 48 estimating states, highlighting widespread adjustments in corn acreage plans.
Several major corn-producing states are expected to see significant reductions. Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin are each projected to plant 300,000 fewer acres of corn or more compared to 2025.
If these intentions are realized, planted corn acreage in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record.
At the same time, regional contrasts remain. Nevada and Washington are expected to plant their largest corn acreage on record, underscoring how local market conditions and production factors continue to influence planting decisions.
Soybean Acreage Rises as Growers Adjust Rotations
While corn acreage is expected to decline, soybean plantings are set to increase. Growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up 4 percent from last year.
Acreage increases of 300,000 acres or more are anticipated in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is projected to reach a record high for soybean acreage, reflecting the crop’s expanding role in regional and national crop mixes.
The shift toward soybeans suggests producers are responding to relative market signals, input costs, and crop rotation considerations as they plan for the upcoming season.
Wheat Plantings Continue Downward Trend
Total wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3 percent from 2025. Winter wheat accounts for the majority of that total, with planted area estimated at 32.4 million acres. This figure is down 2 percent from both the previous estimate and last year.
Plantings of other spring wheat are expected to total 9.42 million acres, representing a 6 percent decline from 2025. Durum wheat acreage shows the sharpest drop, with producers intending to plant 1.95 million acres, down 11 percent from last year.
These reductions continue a longer-term trend of declining wheat acreage as producers weigh profitability and alternative crop options.
Cotton Sees Modest Increase
In contrast to grains, all cotton planted area for 2026 is expected to total 9.64 million acres, an increase of 4 percent from last year. While cotton acreage remains well below historical highs, the year-over-year increase indicates modest renewed interest among growers.
Grain Stocks Show Larger Supplies on Hand
Alongside planting intentions, NASS also released its quarterly Grain Stocks report, providing estimates of on-farm and off-farm inventories as of March 1. The report shows higher stocks for most major crops compared to the same time last year.
Corn stocks totaled 9.02 billion bushels, up 11 percent year over year. On-farm corn stocks increased 21 percent, while off-farm stocks declined 2 percent, suggesting more corn is being held by producers.
Soybean stocks totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10 percent from March 1, 2025. On-farm soybean stocks rose 3 percent, while off-farm stocks climbed 16 percent, indicating stronger commercial holdings.
All wheat stored totaled 1.30 billion bushels, up 5 percent from a year ago. On-farm wheat stocks declined 3 percent, while off-farm stocks increased 8 percent. Durum wheat stocks showed a particularly sharp increase, totaling 46.5 million bushels, up 21 percent from last year. On-farm Durum stocks rose 40 percent, while off-farm stocks decreased 4 percent.
Early Snapshot of the 2026 Season
The Prospective Plantings report is based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March, drawing responses from nearly 74,000 farm operators nationwide.
While final planted acreage may shift as the season progresses, the report offers an early snapshot of producer intentions and emerging trends.
Combined with the Grain Stocks data, the reports point to a year marked by reduced corn and wheat acreage, expanded soybean plantings, and ample grain supplies. These dynamics will be closely watched by producers, traders, and agribusinesses as weather, markets, and global demand shape the 2026 growing season.