Pig farming faces global challenges in 2024
The global sow herd has remained stable through the third quarter of 2024, with minimal signs of expansion, despite improved profitability in certain regions.
“We expect a seasonal production increase as temperatures cool and fresh corn becomes available, though herd health challenges typically rise during this period,” says Christine McCracken, Senior Animal Protein Analyst for RaboResearch.
Biosecurity continues to be a primary concern due to ongoing disease threats. Outbreaks in South Korea, Russia, and the European Union have resulted in production losses during the second half of 2024, hampering efforts to rebuild herds despite the implementation of effective biosecurity measures.
However, the moderating disease pressure in China is anticipated to facilitate a return to herd growth by 2025. Furthermore, slight production increases are expected in Brazil, the United States, and southern EU nations.
Global feed inventories are at their highest levels in years, contributing to reduced hog production costs in most regions. Nevertheless, dry conditions in South America and Asia indicate that the advantages in feed costs are not consistent across the board.
In 2024, decreased corn and soymeal prices have offered margin relief in some areas, while tighter wheat supplies have kept costs elevated in others. McCracken cautions that even a mild La Niña can create regional disparities.
North America’s substantial harvest has helped replenish stocks, whereas the EU and Asia have struggled. “With global stocks providing an adequate buffer, we project another year of moderate cost of gain for most leading pork producers in 2024/25,” McCracken adds.
Positive trends in pork consumption are emerging, driven by favorable economic indicators. Although lower energy costs are easing inflationary pressures, increased service and food costs remain a burden for consumers.
Strong seasonal demand, along with the high prices of alternative proteins, should support robust consumption in the fourth quarter of 2024. “Consumer confidence remains a challenge in many markets due to ongoing economic difficulties. Consumption trends will impact prices, investment decisions, and global trade,” said McCracken.