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Grain price drop puts US farm profits at risk

Federal reserve highlights weak farm income

By Farms.com

The U.S. farming community faces economic hurdles as they head into what could be one of the largest harvests of corn and soybeans in history.

Despite the abundance, grain prices continue to fall, casting doubts on the financial viability of farms across the nation, according to recent insights from the Federal Reserve.

"Regional Fed banks in Chicago and Minneapolis say the farm income outlook had weakened in recent months," highlights the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

This statement captures the broader concerns impacting farmers, from rising production costs to increasing interest rates and household expenditures.

Different Federal Reserve districts report varying agricultural conditions. The Sixth District in Atlanta reports a slight improvement, buoyed by strong cattle and poultry sales.

However, farmers in the Seventh District of Chicago are cautious, holding back crop sales from storage due to the low prices.

Meanwhile, the Eighth District in St. Louis notes better soil conditions compared to the harsh drought of the previous season, and the Dallas area in the 11th District reports generally improved crop conditions.

Despite these localized improvements, the overarching issue of low grain prices continues to dominate the agricultural economic landscape, leading to uncertainties about future farm income levels.

This scenario requires farmers to navigate cautiously, balancing immediate financial pressures with long-term strategies for sustainability and profit.


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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.