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Key Reports to Watch Next Week as of April 28

Key Reports to Watch Next Week as of April 28

Federal Reserve is expected to keep U.S. interest rates unchanged

This week there are five key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of; This column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Devin Lashley Risk Management Intern

1. USDA’s Crop progress report will be released Monday April 29th which may show that 2024 U.S. corn and soybean planting may fall behind last year as the 10–14-day weather forecast remains too wet. But it will help both topsoil and subsoil moisture conditions as many regions remained too dry from the last three years.

U.S. HRW country may miss out on the rains, and this is one reason why wheat futures have begun to surge. The 5-year average for next week for U.S. corn planting is 26 percent, soybeans 11 percent, cotton 14 percent, oats 52 percent and spring wheat 22 percent. Funds with their big grain and oilseed short positions will become concerned if the U.S. cannot plant 50 percent of the 2024 corn crop by May 13th and it could result in a lower U.S. corn and soybean yield in the June USDA crop report!

2. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for May 1, 2024 and the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep U.S. interest rates unchanged; but Q1 U.S. GDP came in at 1.6 percent below expectations and inflation remained sticky.

In fact, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation variable for the Federal Reserve, rose at a 3.4 percent annualized pace for the quarter, its biggest gain in a year and up from 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose at a 3.7 percent rate, both well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

Central bank officials tend to focus on core inflation as a stronger indicator of long-term trends. Lower than expected growth and higher than expected inflation is the worst of both worlds!

3. The U.S. Drought Monitor is scheduled for release on Thursday, May 2nd. The outlook for next week's drought monitor anticipates further positive developments as topsoil and subsoil moisture conditions continue to improve with additional precipitation expected across the Midwest in the next two weeks. Dryness will vanish in Michigan and the extreme drought in Iowa will be significantly reduced. Additionally, dryness and moderate droughts are diminishing across Wisconsin and Minnesota. Welcome news for very dry regions.

4. Keep an eye on the price of wheat as a surge in prices from fund short covering is hitting the headlines. Growing concerns over dry conditions in U.S. HRW country, frost and dry weather in Europe and Southern Russia and India wheat stocks dropping to a 16-year low down 25 percent year over year is waking up the wheat bulls. India is a “wildcard” but any wheat imports from India in 2024 could add to an already tightening global wheat balance sheet down for the fifth straight year not seen since the 2015/16 marketing year.

5. Keep an eye out for any spikes in crude oil prices on any headline news that the Middle East war has escalated again as Israel promises to attach Iran again.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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