Soybean Association Fights for Farmers. What Global Supply Shifts Could Mean.
The Mosaic Company has announced it is scaling back fertilizer production, signalling a significant shift in global nutrient markets at a time when farmers are actively managing input costs and supply risk.
The decision centres on phosphate fertilizers, with Mosaic withdrawing its 2026 production guidance and temporarily reducing output across several operations.
According to the company, the move is driven by sharply rising costs for key raw materials, particularly sulfur and ammonia, which are essential to phosphate fertilizer production. Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have limited availability while pushing prices to record levels, making production uneconomic at certain facilities.
Mosaic has confirmed reduced operations at phosphate plants in the United States and Brazil, describing the action as a short-term response to volatile market conditions rather than a permanent structural change.
The American Soybean Association (ASA) swifty issued a statement in response to the Mosaic news: “This unsettling news from Mosaic comes at a time when U.S. soybean farmers are facing major economic headwinds, and neither the skyrocketing cost nor the availability of inputs – like phosphate fertilizer – are helping ease those challenges,” said ASA President and Ohio soybean farmer Scott Metzger.
“This is the worst time possible for Mosaic to decrease domestic phosphate production. High sulfuric acid costs are disrupting the global fertilizer market, and farmers are ultimately paying the price through higher input costs.”
ASA renewed its call for the Trump administration to address the high cost and limited availability of phosphate fertilizers by terminating the countervailing duties (CVD) on imports from Morocco and Russia.
“This ill-conceived duty has increased the cost of phosphate fertilizer for farmers by $6.9 billion over the past five years while commodity prices continue to trend downwards," affirmed Metzger. "We urge the President to remove the CVD on phosphate fertilizers to address the availability and affordability of this important input."
What All of this Means for Fertilizer Availability
For farmers, the most immediate concern is whether these production cuts will affect fertilizer availability ahead of key application periods. While Mosaic has stated it intends to continue supplying customers through inventory management and market redirection, analysts warn that reduced output from a major global producer could tighten supply if demand strengthens later in the season.
Phosphate markets were already under pressure before this announcement, due in part to restricted exports from other producing regions and ongoing logistics challenges. Mosaic leadership has acknowledged that global phosphate supply may struggle to fully meet demand if current conditions persist.
Potash production remains comparatively more stable, and Mosaic has indicated that potash operations are not facing the same degree of margin pressure as phosphates.
Potential Impact on Fertilizer Prices
Price movement will depend on how long production remains curtailed and how global demand evolves through the remainder of the year. Finished phosphate fertilizer prices have already increased in response to higher production costs, and additional supply constraints could maintain upward pressure.
For growers, this reinforces the importance of forward planning and close communication with retailers and agronomic advisers. In recent seasons, fertilizer volatility has led many farms to reassess nutrient strategies, adjust crop rotations, and explore efficiency-focused application practices.
Mosaic has stated that production can be restarted quickly if input costs stabilise, though no specific timeline has been provided.
What Farmers Should Watch for Next
Growers will want to monitor several developments closely:
- Movements in sulfur and ammonia prices
- Updates from Mosaic regarding the duration of production curtailments
- Export policies from other major fertilizer-producing countries
- Seasonal demand trends as planting and application windows approach
- Weather or not the Trump administration terminates the countervailing duty on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and and Russia
Beyond the immediate fertilizer implications, Mosaic’s decision highlights the growing exposure of agriculture to global energy markets, geopolitics, and supply chain concentration. Fertilizer production depends heavily on inputs that are increasingly sensitive to international disruptions, from energy pricing to transportation access.