Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls take technical control

Jan 03, 2023

February lean hog futures this week have rallied to near the recent highs, including the contract high of $93.30. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. However, weakness in the cash hog market may limit the upside in futures. The latest CME lean hog index is quoted down 13 cents to $78.60 (as of Dec. 23). That is the lowest in almost a year. The five-day national direct rolling average cash hog price today was quoted at $78.30.

Hog market bulls are hoping a seasonal bottom in cash prices is close at hand, evidenced by the big gains in hog futures on Tuesday. Rising corn and soybean meal futures prices this week also likely limited buying interest in hog futures. USDA’s bullish quarterly Hogs & Pigs report last Friday should limit the downside in the hog market in the near term. The agency estimated the Dec. 1 hog herd at 73.119 million head, down 1.327 million head (1.8%) from year-ago and 210,000 head under pre-report estimates. Hog inventories fell 2.0% to 68.321 million head and the breeding herd at 6.154 million head was 0.5% above last year.

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Video: Five Confirmed New World Screwworm Cases Raise Alarm for Livestock and Pet Owners

Pat Hoffmann, Swine Technical Consultant at Elanco Animal Health tells us about the impact of New World Screwworm. The emergence of New World screwworm in the U.S. creates a threat for veterinarians, livestock producers and pet owners that has not been seen north of the Florida Keys since the fly was eradicated from the United States more than 50 years ago. New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae feed on living tissue and can affect a wide range of warm-blooded animals, including livestock, companion animals, wildlife, and even humans.
“New World screwworm could have a devastating impact on animal health, welfare, and producer livelihoods,” said Jeff Simmons, President and CEO, Elanco Animal Health. “We want to thank the FDA, EPA and USDA, for all their work to prepare for this threat. We’re committed to supporting our customers during this challenging time by delivering innovation, scientific expertise, and available resources to help treat New World screwworm and support the health and well-being of animals.”
Elanco is working alongside the U.S. animal health industry to help them fight against this parasite, offering a portfolio of options for pets and livestock that can help treat New World screwworm larvae infestations.