Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls take technical control

Jan 03, 2023

February lean hog futures this week have rallied to near the recent highs, including the contract high of $93.30. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. However, weakness in the cash hog market may limit the upside in futures. The latest CME lean hog index is quoted down 13 cents to $78.60 (as of Dec. 23). That is the lowest in almost a year. The five-day national direct rolling average cash hog price today was quoted at $78.30.

Hog market bulls are hoping a seasonal bottom in cash prices is close at hand, evidenced by the big gains in hog futures on Tuesday. Rising corn and soybean meal futures prices this week also likely limited buying interest in hog futures. USDA’s bullish quarterly Hogs & Pigs report last Friday should limit the downside in the hog market in the near term. The agency estimated the Dec. 1 hog herd at 73.119 million head, down 1.327 million head (1.8%) from year-ago and 210,000 head under pre-report estimates. Hog inventories fell 2.0% to 68.321 million head and the breeding herd at 6.154 million head was 0.5% above last year.

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Video: What It Takes to Stop African Swine Fever - Dr. Jishu Shi

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, Dr. Jishu Shi, Professor of Vaccine Immunology at Kansas State University, discusses African swine fever prevention and vaccine development. He explains why ASF differs from classical swine fever and swine influenza, how the disease threatens trade and pork production, why immunization safety remains a critical hurdle, and what producers can do now to reduce the risk of introduction. Listen now on all major platforms!

"Before a safe and efficacious vaccine for ASF can be commercialized, what we really have is prevention."

Meet the guest: Dr. Jishu Shi is Professor of Vaccine Immunology and the Dr. Wayne & Hilda Appleton Endowed Professor at Kansas State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine. He directs the Center on Biologics Development and Evaluation and the U.S.-China Center for Animal Health. A veterinarian and vaccine immunologist, Dr. Shi has focused on vaccines for pigs and has worked on African swine fever vaccine development, control, diagnostics, and international training since 2018. Learn more from Dr. Jishu Shi on The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, available on all major platforms.