Deere’s disappointing outlook shows farm recovery is elusive

Deere & Co.’s weak forecast for the year ahead reinforces the difficulty in predicting a recovery in the U.S. farm economy as uncertainty continues to swirl over the impact of tariffs and trade deals.

Shares of the world’s biggest farm machinery maker fell as much as 5.7% in New York as the company’s first profit outlook for 2026 fell short of expectations. The forecast underscores how the agriculture sector remains in the dark even after a U.S. trade agreement resumes crop shipments to China.

Farmers have been grappling with President Donald Trump’s tariff policies that squeezed demand and raised costs. While the recent deal with China is raising hopes, there’s still questions on whether the ramp-up of soybean and wheat sales will be enough to shake the US farm economy out of a years-long slump.

“Deere’s widely underwhelming 2026 guidance suggests a more severe and prolonged agricultural downturn than we initially anticipated, though it offers clarity on trough earnings this cycle,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Chris Ciolino wrote in a report.

Deere said net income in the 2026 fiscal year will be between $4 billion and $4.75 billion. That misses the average Bloomberg estimate for $5.31 billion and would be a drop from the $5.027 billion reported for the year just ended.