Record corn production expected in USDA's latest forecast

Nov 14, 2023

The latest report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) brings a significant forecast for the 2023-24 agricultural season. The USDA has revised its corn production estimate up by 170 million bushels, predicting a record-setting 15.234 billion bushels. This forecast not only surpasses earlier projections but is also set to break the 2016 record for corn production.

Alongside corn, the USDA has also adjusted its soybean production figures, increasing its prediction by 25 million bushels to a total of 4.129 billion bushels. These updates are viewed by DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman as bearish for both corn and, to a lesser extent, soybeans, regarding new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates. On a global scale, the USDA's estimates are seen as bearish for corn, but neutral for soybeans and wheat.

The implications of these projections are far-reaching for the agricultural market. Record-high corn production and increased soybean yields could significantly influence market trends and agricultural strategies.

This USDA report is a key source of information for farmers, market analysts, and other stakeholders in the agriculture industry, offering insights that will shape decision-making in the coming crop year. Further updates and expert commentary are expected as the industry continues to digest and respond to this groundbreaking forecast.

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.