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Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of October 1st

Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of October 1st

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of October 1, 2023. This column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton Risk Management Intern

1. Next week’s USDA crop progress report will be released on Monday, October 2nd. The recent report showed that corn and soybean harvests are slightly above the 5-year average despite some rains. Corn harvested was 15% complete vs. the 5-year average at 13% up 6% from last week, and 4% higher than this time last year. Soybeans are at 12% harvested vs. the 5-year average at 11% up 7% from last week and up 5% from last year. Winter wheat planting progress was 26%, complete vs. 30% last year and below the 5-year average of 29%. Historically, grain markets tend to bottom when the U.S. corn harvest reaches 50% complete around the week of October 8th.

2. Next week's reports include the USDA grains inspected for export report on Monday, October 2nd, EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, October 4th, and the USDA weekly export sales on Thursday October 5th. The grains inspected for export report showed strong numbers for corn and soybeans, while other grains lacked such numbers. Total commitments to date vs. last year:

  • Wheat -14%
  • Corn -3%
  • Soybeans -34%
  • Soybean meal +7%
  • Soyoil -81%
  • Cotton -31%

3.The U.S. drought monitor map will be updated on Thursday, October 5th; 58% of U.S. corn production remains in a drought with soybeans at 55%. U.S. states east of the Mississippi, such as Indiana and Ohio, were late to join the drought party with IN went from 32.8% in a D1-D4 drought to 85.30 up52.50% in 1 week. Ohio also jumped 27/05 in a D1-D4 drought.

4. On Friday, October 6th, the USDA and ERS will be releasing their monthly Livestock and Meat International Trade data. Last month's update, showcasing data from July, showed strong imports of Canadian Beef and veal, along with Australia and New Zealand. The highlight is the +13% in hog exports and beef demand may finally be seeing a peak as consumers push back on record prices.

5. U.S. government may be on shut down as of midnight on October 1st, 2023, if the Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on all the funding issues. We could see a temporary measure to fund the U.S./ government until November so that they have more time to iron out their differences, but some are concerned we may not have a USDA October crop report on Oct. 12th, 2023, as the USDA will not have enough data collected for the survey from Sept. 29 – Oct 4th, 2023 and some think we may have to wait until January of 2024!

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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