Key Cattle Reports to Shape the Future of Prices and Supply

Jan 22, 2025
By Farms.com

Low Cattle Numbers, Rising Prices, and Market Trends—What the Latest Data Means for 2025

The beef industry is at a pivotal point, with upcoming reports expected to clarify market trends and price directions. Three significant reports—the Cattle on Feed, the annual Cattle Inventory, and the Cold Storage reports—are anticipated to provide valuable insights into the future dynamics of beef prices.

The first report, Cattle on Feed, will offer data on the number of cattle being fed for slaughter, reflecting supply capabilities.

The annual Cattle Inventory report, due in late January, is particularly crucial as it provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. cattle population. This report is expected to indicate a slight decline in overall cattle numbers, potentially reaching the lowest levels in over seven decades.

The Cold Storage report will give an idea of the demand side by showing how much beef is currently stored in freezers across the country, which can impact retail prices and availability.

Economists suggest that even though inflation has moderated compared to previous years, prices for beef and veal have risen by approximately 5.4 percent. This price increase is part of a broader inflationary trend that continues to affect food products at grocery stores, adding pressure to both consumers and producers.

With these reports, stakeholders from farmers to consumers will gain a clearer picture of where beef prices are headed in the near future.

The data will also help in strategizing for both market adjustments and consumer expectations, ensuring that all parties are prepared for the economic realities of 2025.

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
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A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
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CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
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