First WASDE outlook shows lower wheat output higher prices and tighter supplies
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released its first outlook for the 2026–2027 crop year in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The outlook signals a major decline in U.S. wheat production, marking one of the smallest harvests in decades.
USDA projects total U.S. wheat production at about 1.6 billion bushels, more than 20% lower than the previous year. Winter wheat output is expected to fall sharply to just over 1 billion bushels, mainly due to reduced planted areas, lower yields, and widespread drought conditions.
“Unfortunately, U.S. wheat growers are not surprised by this report. Across the country, farmers continue to face stubbornly high input costs, ongoing uncertainty in global markets, and the continual challenge of achieving profitability on the farm. As a result, many farmers are making difficult decisions to plant fewer wheat acres. In addition, much of wheat country is experiencing significant drought,” said National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) CEO Sam Kieffer.
Lower wheat supplies are expected to reduce exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. USDA projects ending stocks drop to 762 million bushels, while the average farm price is forecast to rise to $6.50 per bushel due to tighter supply.
Globally, wheat production is projected to decline as well, with major exporting regions such as the U.S., European Union, Argentina, and Australia reporting smaller crops. World wheat stocks are also expected to decrease.
Beyond wheat, USDA forecasts lower U.S. corn production, leading to higher prices and reduced ending stocks. Rice production is also projected lower, while soybean output is expected to increase due to higher acreage and strong demand for biofuel.
The report highlights ongoing challenges for farmers while emphasizing the growing impact of weather, costs, and global demand on food supplies and prices.
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