Will U.S. Dry/Hot Weather Later this Summer Spark a Summer Fund Grain Market Rally

Corn Prices Could Climb as a High-Pressure Ridge Hits Midwest

Weather patterns and market trends affected grain and livestock futures according to the weekly podcast Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast hosted by experts Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the team explored commodity markets the week of June 2 to 6, 2025.

Corn was the key focus this week, as attention turned to a weak high-pressure ridge expected to settle over the U.S. Midwest by mid-June. Although recent months brought plenty of moisture to the region, forecasts hint at drier conditions that could affect crop yields. The European weather model shows continued wet conditions, but the American model appears drier, especially in the western Corn Belt. Moisture levels so far have kept short-term crop prospects positive.

Crop Profit projects U.S. corn yield at 181.6 bushels per acre, slightly higher than earlier expectations. Despite a strong Brazilian corn crop and higher U.S. production, fund managers are starting to price in a weather premium, with short covering seen in the December corn contract. Corn seasonality is in play, and if the weather cooperates, a late summer rally could develop.

Meanwhile, livestock markets were the top performers. Hogs hit new contract highs while live and feeder cattle futures traded to new record highs. Stock markets also surged, with the S&P 500 crossing 6,000 before pulling back slightly. Tech stocks, especially the “Magnificent Seven,” continued driving major index gains.

Wheat futures also showed bullish signs. Kansas and Chicago wheat markets formed inverted head-and-shoulders patterns. Minneapolis wheat led the trend, breaking above the 200-day moving average. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic as some dry conditions persist in Western Canada.

The latest CFTC report shows funds remain net short in corn and wheat, while holding long positions in soybeans and livestock and record long canola. Any positive trade developments, like the upcoming U.S.-China talks in London on Monday, could trigger additional rallies.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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