2015 Frost/Freeze Outlook

 

Questions about frost/freeze potential are common this time of the year as producers look for a little more time for crops to mature, or gardeners and horticulture enthusiasts hope for some extra days to collect a few more tomatoes. Projecting specific frost dates are difficult beyond using models out to 1-2 weeks. Thus, climatologies and current crop progress become very important.

 

 

Current crop progress this year varies greatly across the Plains and Midwest because of spring and early summer planting conditions. Early spring in the northern plains/upper Midwest was quite dry allowing easy planting progress and warm soils before rains started occurring in May. This situation was in large contrast to the southern and eastern parts of the Corn Belt.

 

As of the September 22 NASS Crop Report, crop progress in the northern plains is generally close to average to slightly ahead in some cases. Corn for example is 45% mature, close to the 43% average. Soybeans dropping leaves were 73%, near the 71% average. Because of that there is less concern about freezing conditions. Fortunately, unusually warm September weather across the entire Corn Belt has hastened crop maturity and current forecasts indicate no threat of an early freeze. Most crops are likely to be fully mature or very close by early October in much of the northern Corn Belt areas. Thus, the freeze impact may be minimized.

 

 

Current models keep temperatures warmer than average over the region through the end of September and even somewhat likely into October. The likelihood of frost/freeze is limited in this area. Changes in forecast are fluid at this time of the year and should be checked regularly.