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2020 grains, oilseeds and pulse outlook update: Weather and global demand to influence profitability

In our January 2020 Grains, Oilseeds and Pulses Outlook, we identified three major trends to affect profitability for the sector:
  • Trade tensions’ influence on the global economy and agri-food markets
  • African Swine Fever’s (ASF) disruption of livestock and meat markets
  • Large global supplies amid challenging growing conditions for crops
How did we do in the first half of the year?
 
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global recession, highlighted by severe supply chain disruptions, including reductions in processing capacity and plant shutdowns. Despite these challenges, trade of Canadian grains, oilseeds and pulses has performed well in the first half of 2020.
 
According to the Canadian Grain Commission, producer deliveries were 13.5% higher year-to-date (YTD) and exports 8.1% higher. Exports are competing with a strong domestic demand: AAFC projects domestic use of principal field crops in the 2019-20 crop year to be 3% higher than last year.
 
Global trade tensions continued to weigh on markets. In January, China and ;the U.S. agreed to a Phase 1 trade deal, which called for the export value of U.S. farm products to China to increase by 50% relative to 2017. Yet, it looks as if China won’t meet its ambitious target – even if their recent purchases of corn, wheat and sorghum have been aggressive. Canada - China trade relations remained lukewarm. Conversely, a reduction of Indian tariffs on Canadian exports of lentils provided a boost to lentil demand.
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Why Rob Saik is Trying to Build the World’s Most Connected Agriculture Network

Video: Why Rob Saik is Trying to Build the World’s Most Connected Agriculture Network

In a recent interview at the SeedLink Conference in Brandon, Man., Rob Saik, author, speaker, and CEO of AGvisorPRO, took a trip down memory lane, reminiscing about the beginnings of his career and what the future holds.

Graduating from the University of Alberta in 1983, Saik embarked on a journey that started in Brandon, Man. “I got a job with Elanko, got a U-Haul truck, threw everything I had into it, drove to the Victoria Inn, and lived there for three months while they tried to find an apartment for me to move into. So I started my career in Brandon,” Saik shared.

Fast forward to the present, Saik has evolved into an accomplished author and speaker, traversing the globe to engage in high-level discussions about the future of agriculture and the critical role it plays in feeding the world. Yet, despite his global presence, he finds himself back in Brandon, addressing a group of seed growers. But why? Saik emphasizes the fundamental importance of seeds, stating, “It all begins with a seed, doesn’t it?”

Reflecting on his own experiences as a farmer, Saik expresses his excitement when a planted seed germinates and evolves into a thriving crop. He underscores the significance of technology and breeding in seed development, recognizing the crucial role they play in ensuring farmers can propagate seeds, grow profitable crops, and contribute to global food security.

Saik delves into the challenges faced by the agricultural community, particularly the rapid pace of technological advancements. He believes that the key lies in connecting farmers to experts swiftly, boosting farmers’ confidence in adopting new technologies, and ensuring the timely implementation of these advancements. According to Saik, this approach is crucial for steering agriculture towards sustainability and profitability.

As Saik works on his upcoming book, tentatively titled prAGmatic, he sheds light on its central theme. “The thesis would be that I want to write a book that takes what the consumer wants, challenges what the consumer believes, and positions that against what the farmers can actually do pragmatically,” he explains. The book aims to bridge the gap between consumer expectations and the realistic capabilities of farmers, promoting sustainable intensification as the necessary path to feed the planet.

Looking ahead to 2024, Saik emphasizes the need for enhanced connectivity within the seed industry. He discusses his platform, AgvisorPro, which is designed to facilitate connections between farmers, experts, and companies in a way that transcends conventional social media platforms. Saik envisions a credible, connected agricultural network that goes beyond the noise of platforms like LinkedIn or Twitter.

In a passionate vision for the future, Saik imagines a tool for teachers that allows them to pose questions from students, answered by verified farmers and ranchers. This, he believes, would provide an authentic and valuable educational resource, connecting classrooms with individuals who truly understand the intricacies of agriculture.